Early results from the 2013 Census are starting to appear. Later on we will have a full demographic profile of the island – which will make polling and surveys much more accurate. But for now we have the headline figure.
The residential population of Waiheke is 8262
Thats an increase from 2006 of 561 or 6.8%. That may sound quite impressive – but consider that the rest of Auckland increased in population by more than 8.2%.
However take a look at this chart.
Population growth on the island has been slowing since 2001. The red line shows the estimates used by the council, they are higher as they include people who don’t show up in the census – but what is interesting is that the growth rate has twice now been estimated to be higher than it actually was and has needed to be corrected downwards.
Back in 2000 in the Essentially Waiheke Report the island population was expected to reach 10,000 by 2006. This was hard to justify given the previous census data and is a lesson in not extrapolating curves (which I will now proceed to do).
Looking at the per year change in population between each census we get a drop from 167 (2001), 113 (2006) to 80 (2013). So in the next 5 years we might see some continued slow growth – but the total is unlikely to cross the 9000 mark at any time in the near future.