Here are some more interesting figures extracted from the polling results. Warning I am not a statistician.
No One Won
|Number who Voted||3857|
64.5% of the population voting is commonly regarded as a success. The overall figure for Auckland 3 years ago was 37.3%, this time it is 50.54%. So while Auckland massively increased its turnout, Waiheke which always turns out well didn’t increase much. That remaining 35% of voters just don’t want to turn out. Great Barrier managed 74.2%
Take a look at the table of results more closely – let me add in the people who didn’t vote for anyone – who effectively voted for no-one
|Candidate||votes||percent of vote||percent of pop|
As you can see ‘no one’ effectively came second. Only Denise has more votes than ‘no one’ Only Denise can claim to represent a majority of islanders. For everyone else sadly there are more people who would rather not vote for anyone than vote for you. A sobering thought – please get in touch with me if you want to be part of doing something about that.
Left or Right – Progressive or Business as Usual ?
Does the Local Board represent the island? One way to look at is would be to compare the number of votes gained by the winners (8344) compared with those gained by the losers (8471). A near even split but probably not significant as you would expect a fairly smooth log curve distribution across the population.
I don’t hold with the concept of left or right. I think it is outmoded and diminishes peoples choices. One can be socially inclusive while being fiscally responsible for example. However during the campaign much was said about sustainability and community resilience and we might take a look at the results from that point of view.
The Business as Usual point of view says that the last few decades have been immensely successful with growth in many industries and increasing globalisation. The way to plan for the future of Waiheke is to expect more of the same type of pressures. That might mean
- More tourists and growing wine, olive industry
- More traffic
- Increasing population on the island
- More suburban pressures
The Progressive or ‘times they are a changing’ point of view says that the next few decades will be completely unlike the last decades. Growing debt and financial crises, growing energy costs and oil depletion, climate change all could result in a dramatically different future. These changes have been discussed extensively elsewhere but for Waiheke they might mean
- Reduction in international tourism
- Greatly increased fuel costs – more expensive car and ferry transport
- Loss of credit for investment
- Falling house and land values
- Business failures and rising unemployment
- Falling population as people can not afford to live on the island
- More extreme weather events: storms, droughts etc.
So the question is what is the view of the island on these issues and is it reflected by the local board?
|Candidate||votes||Progressive||Business as usual||Progressive|
The totals come out showing that the progressives got 10240 votes compared to the baus 6575 an approximate 60:40 split across the whole voting public. However on the Local Board the buas have a majority.
Note I’ve graded the candidates according to my own interpretation of what they said in the campaign. I’m happy to be corrected on this.
With 20:20 hindsight we can all come up with reasons why this might have come about. Nevertheless I would hope the new board bear these figures in mind when they consider their mandate.